ExtendSim Research Grants

ExtendSim Research GrantExtendSim popularity in higher institutions has experienced phenomenal growth in recent years as researchers have learned of ExtendSim's ease of use combined with its high level of accuracy. In response to numerous requests for assistance with PostDoc, PhD, and Masters research, we have established the ExtendSim Research Grant program.

Under the Grant, Imagine That Inc. subsidizes a portion of the student's research by donating a full version of ExtendSim for use by the student during the term of the project. In exchange, the student provides a description of the research and quarterly updates throughout the term of the project. At the end of the research, all findings (ie. paper, project, etc.) and the ExtendSim model formulated are posted on the Imagine That Inc. web site and the student may continue to use the ExtendSim license granted to them.

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Arab Academy  
by Mohammed A. Shararah1, Khaled S. El-Kilany, and Aziz E. El-Sayed
Final paper to be presented at FAIM 10 ConferenceFAIM Conference 2010
Completion date January 29, 2010 Arab Academy for Science and Technology
Grant established August 6, 2009
Author Mohammed A. Shararah
University Arab Academy for Science and Technology
Degree Masters
Tool used ExtendSim Suite
Abstract

Value Stream Mapping is an important tool in the implementation of lean manufacturing. It identifies the waste in the system, paving the way for a successful lean implementation. VSM is a paper and pencil tool that captures the state of the system at the state it was drawn. Arab Academy modelSimulation can be combined with value stream mapping to give it power and flexibility in order to dynamically capture the state of the system. Component-based modeling divides a simulation model into a number of smaller simulation models each encapsulated in a component resulting in a set of simulation building blocks. These blocks can be used for the purpose of developing value stream maps as they are designed to be generic, reusable, and appear exactly like the traditional VSM icons. This paper introduces the Value Stream Map Simulator using ExtendSim (VSMSx) as a powerful tool designed to facilitate the implementation of lean manufacturing by simulating the value stream map. Compared to traditional value stream mapping, this tool outputs more quantitative information about the system under study and various scenarios allowing for better decision making, thus paving the way for successful lean implementation.

Download paper go to...
Original project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

Value Stream Mapping (VSM) is originally a pen and paper tool which is a main tool in lean manufacturing programs. A current-state of the VSM must be drawn and various solutions for the future state as well, in pursuit of perfection to put in effect the principles of lean. Such a process is time consuming because it requires redrawing of the maps and the alteration of inputs, also the recalculation of the output values for every map which doesn’t succumb to the lean philosophy, moreover its inability to detail dynamic behavior of production processes. Simulation of reusable models would assist to avert such drawbacks in VSM in order to quantify the gains during the early planning stages. Connection of the reusable models to a simulation model facilitates the demonstration of solutions to easily make managerial decisions.

bullet Question that will be answered by your research.
 

Would simulation of reusable models aid the VSM team to facilitate changes in the maps (sub-models) and visualize the impact of these alterations on the outcome of the real system model?

bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
 
bullet Identify and model the different symbols used by VSM.
bullet Develop own library for VSM.
bullet Verify and validate modeled components.
bullet Draw value stream maps for published case studies.
bullet Model these maps using the developed library.
bullet Verify and validate developed model.
bullet Model real system (already selected and started developing the VSM).
bullet Analyze output and improve system.
bullet Reconfigure developed model to represent the improved system.
bullet Visualize the outcome using 3D animation to convey results.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

After reviewing the tremendous specifications of the ExtendSim and trying out the demo version, it was obvious that it’s a powerful program with vast useful options for my research. I highlighted below only a few of which I’ll be using in my work:

bullet The hierarchical decomposition models and save them in libraries allowing them to be reusable. The real system model and the VSM models.
bullet Since ExtendSim is Library based, the blocks built can be saved in libraries and easily reused in other models (maps).
bullet Develop my own modeling architecture, conventions, and features. With the ExtendSim I will create my custom set of blocks with unique interfaces, communication protocols, and behaviors all concerning the VSM and its unique icons and interactions together.
bullet Integrated data linking. Connecting block dialog data to internal databases.
bullet 3D animation of the real model for enhanced presentation.
bullet Project uniqueness
 

Based on my review of literature concerning the modeling and simulation of Value Stream Maps (VSM) in lean manufacturing, the idea of reusable models in the components of the VSM and connecting them to a real system model turned out to be unique in a way that no one prior to the writing of these lines made an application concerning the discussed topic.

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  Lean manufacturing is booming and for the next decade or so, many manufacturing firms would turn towards lean production for its benefits in cost savings. Such a research, correctly undertaken would have a highly convincing effect on managers to take a decision in such a huge investment by allowing them to visualize their production lines before implementation. Such a challenging research gives me motivation to combine VSM with simulation to increase the persuasion for decision makers to implement lean when they visualize the effects and benefits it has upon the firm.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
  Undertaking such a research would give me wide knowledge of lean systems and the adequate use of its tools for implementation decisions. By learning how to value stream map processes, which is considered the most important tool in lean as it identifies where wastes exist; using component based modeling and simulation on production lines would allow me to grasp more of such a powerful tool when combining it with the VSM.
bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  Modeling and simulation of value stream maps for lean production systems using the component based approach.
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University of Coloroda Denver
by John B. Norris, Suresh Chand, Herbert Moskowitz, Steve Shade
Completion date December 2007
Grant established July 2, 2007 .
Author John Norris
University Purdue University
Degree PhD in Management, Quantitative Methods
Tool used for project ExtendSim OR + Stat::Fit (from Geer Mountain Software)
Abstract

Partnering with Indiana University Medical Group (IUMG), the author focused on outpatient care:

. Address the issue of missed appointments
. Analyze variability in patient flow
. Analyze performance of phone system

...to analyze and improve patient flow at an outpatient clinic of the Indiana University Medical Group. Queuing concepts were used to uncover sources of variability and to generate ideas to improve clinic operations that would mitigate the undesirable effect of variability. A process map, that matched the process at the clinic, was developed and validated. Data on task times was collected by observing the process with stopwatch or from historical records. A simulation model corresponding to the process map was developed, and the output was validated. Several ideas to modify clinic operations were tested on the validated simulation model. The overall result was an improvement in both the mean and the standard deviation of patient wait time, as well as higher utilization of physicians’ time. The clinic has implemented several of their recommendations and experienced improvements consistent with model predictions.

Download final presentation go to...
Original project description and updates

Purdue University has partnered with an outpatient medical facility operating 20 clinics. Their first project involves testing changes in the registration process at a primary care facility. Process flow maps have been developed to document current processes. They are modeling how reducing variability and excessive waiting early in the visit reduces variability and waiting throughout the patient visit. Their second project specifically addresses the routing and staffing of phone calls at the same clinics. Purchased call management software provides best practices for call routing. Research is focused on the cost benefit trade off of staffing levels and providing recommendations for improving the routing of phone calls.

.February 1, 2008 - Unfortunately my funding as a PhD student ran out at the time I received the Extend research grant. My professors accepted my work to date for my dissertation and I defended in August of 2007. Results of the project, a manuscript which is under review at IIE transactions, is confidential until it is approved for publication.

Thank you for the assistance throughout the program.

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University of Southern California Managing Service Systems with an Offline Waiting Option and Customer Abandonment
by Vasiliki Kostami, Sriram Dasu, and Amy R. Ward
Published December 19, 2008
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
Grant established November 21, 2006 USC
Author Vasiliki Kostami
University University of Southern California
Degree PhD in Operations Management
Tool used for project Extend OR
Abstract

Many service providers offer customers the choice of either waiting in a line, or going offline and returning at a dynamically determined future time. The best known example is the FASTPASS® system at Disneyland. To operate such a system, the service provider must first make an up front decision on how to allocate service capacity between the two lines. Then, during system operation, he must dynamically provide estimates of the waiting times at both lines to each arriving customer. The estimation of offline waiting times is complicated by the fact that some offline customers do not return for service at their appointed time.

Managing Service Systems with an Offline Waiting Option and Customer Abandonment shows that when demand is large and service is fast, for any fixed capacity allocation decision, the two-dimensional process tracking the number of customers waiting inline and offline collapses to one dimension, and characterize the one-dimensional limit process as a reflected diffusion with linear drift. Next, we use the one-dimensional limit process to develop approximations for the steady-state distribution of the number of customers waiting inline and offline, the steady-state probability of abandonment from the offline queue, and to dynamically estimate inline and offline waits for each arriving customer. We conclude by considering a cost model, and optimize the up front capacity allocation decision.

Download complete report .
Original project description and updates

November 21, 2006 - In an effort to improve the customer experience in service systems, we study a queueing system in which some customers immediately join the queue and some return at a later time for immediate service. We develop methodology to estimate real-time delays and return times at which immediate service can be guaranteed. One factor complicating the estimation procedure is that some customers promised immediate service will not return. We will use ExtendSim to build a simulation study verifying the accuracy of the proposed approximations.

.The development of such methodology has applications for customer contact centers and hospital emergency rooms. In the customer contact center setting, callers may be given the option between immediate service and postponed service. In the hospital emergency room setting, patients in critical condition should receive immediate service, but patients in non-critical condition can be given an accurate “appointment” time later that day. ExtendSim’s rich discrete event simulation tool set will help us to refine our methodology for these applications contexts.

February 21, 2007 - We studied a queueing system in which customers have the choice to either join the queue immediately or to come back later. At a first step, the simulation we built works under the assumption that the waiting costs for the customers are equal for both lines and depend only on the ratio of service rate between the two queues. We run the simulation for possible values of this ratio and for different probabilities of abandonment of the offline queue (the abandonment time was assumed to be Exp(gamma)). We collected the results for the mean queue length of the two lines, the probability of abandonment and the queue ratio for the n-th system in a 95% confidence found after running the simulation enough times to generate over 1,000,000 arrivals. The results then were compared with our approximations that were proved to be quite accurate. (Click on the table to download the complete Excel table.)

As a next step, we are thinking of making our model more complicated by removing the assumption of equal waiting costs and by adding another similar queue. This model will be applicable in circumstances like entertainment parks were customers want to enjoy two rides and have to choose whether they will join the standard queues or they will take a fast pass to come back later.

June 2, 2007 - Unfortunately, the last quarter we didn't make any progress in our ExtendSim model because we were working on the mathematical background of the model trying to prove the computational results. We are currently working on an extension of the model; we study a queueing system in which customers have the choice to either join the queue immediately or to come back later, but now we allow the abandonment times to be generally distributed. We will soon have the ExtendSim model for this generalization and the simulation results.

August 26, 2007 - This quarter we worked on a generalized version of our model. More specifically, we worked on a single-server queueing model in which customers may choose between waiting for service in real-time, and returning for service at a dynamically specified future time point. Customers waiting for the delayed service option may not return for service. Customers arrive at the system at a rate lambda and are served with rate mu and their service follows a generalized processor sharing discipline. More details on the model can be found in "A Single-Server Queue with a Delayed Service
Option and Exponential Abandonment Times"
. Now we are working with the simulation model to look at the accuracy of the approximations by the convergence results suggested in Theorems 1-3 of the paper.

February 6, 2008 - Paper submitted in the Fall of 2007 and is being revised. A minor change was made to the model so are currently rerunning some of the simulations based on the new model. Results will be incorporated in the new version of the paper.

Other publications Amy A Ward, Peter W. Glynn, "A Diffusion Approximation for a GI/GI/1 Queue with Balking or Reneging".
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University of Coloroda Denver
by Vicente González, L.F. Alarcón, and K. Molenaar
Published July 18, 2008
Automation in Construction
Grant established April 18, 2005 .
Author Vicente González
University Pontificia Universidad de Católica de Chile
Degree PhD in Construction
Abstract

.Variability in production is one of the largest factors that negatively impacts construction project performance. A common construction practice to protect production systems from variability is the use of buffers (Bf). Construction practitioners and researchers have proposed buffering approaches for different production situations, but these approaches have faced practical limitations in their application.

In Multiobjective Design of Work-In-Process Buffer for Scheduling Repetitive Building Projects, a multiobjective analytic model (MAM) is proposed to develop a graphical solution for the design of Work-In-Process (WIP) Bf in order to overcome these practical limitations to Bf application, being demonstrated through the scheduling of repetitive building projects. Multiobjective analytic modeling is based on Simulation–Optimization (SO) modeling and Pareto Fronts concepts. Simulation–Optimization framework uses Evolutionary Strategies (ES) as the optimization search approach, which allows for the design of optimum WIP Bf sizes by optimizing different project objectives (e.g., project cost, time and productivity). The framework is tested and validated on two repetitive building projects. The SO framework is then generalized through Pareto Front concepts, allowing for the development of the MAM as nomographs for practical use. The application advantages of the MAM are shown through a project scheduling example. Results demonstrate project performance improvements and a more efficient and practical design of WIP Bf. Additionally, production strategies based on WIP Bf and lean production principles in construction are discussed.

  Download final report (664 KB): "Work-In-Process Buffer Design Methodology for Scheduling Repetitive Building Projects" by Vicente González and Luis F. Alarcón .
  Download Extend OR 6 model files (5.7 MB)
You may view these models in ExtendSim or download the ExtendSim Demo.
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Original project description and updates

April 18, 2005 - "The specific topic related to my PhD Research is buffer management in repetitive building projects. Like buffer I have been using work in process between dependent activities or production processes in building projects. The use of discrete simulation and the process interaction strategy is fundamental in my research to model the effect of different buffer sizes in the variability of production processes and the performance of projects construction (schedule and budget).For this reason, I have been working with ExtendSim and its powerful capacities to understand the effect of the buffers and to develop heuristic and analytic expressions at different levels of construction projects development to the decision making process."

February 16, 2006 – "During February, I'll be preparing an ISI paper and another one for a specific conference (International Group for Lean Construction, XIV Conference, Santiago, Chile, 2006)....so, I expect to finish these papers at the end of February or at the beginning of March, but these versions will be draft papers..the definitive paper should be ready in May or June..."

July 5, 2006 – Presented paper about WIP Buffer Design and Management at the 14th International Conference for Lean Construction, Santiago, Chile, July 2006.

December 29, 2006 - "My research is finishing. Next July (2007) I'll have my final exam about my research with the international advisors. About my models, I have developed a generic simulation modeling approach to size WIP Buffers in repetitive projects. By using Simulation-Optimization, I can find the optimum WIP Buffer size that minimizes the project schedule and maximizes the average productivity. During January and March I'll use neural networks to model the WIP Buffer size by using only a few parameters. These parameters are production rates, variability of cycle times, production amount, and numbers of processes."

January 27, 2008 - Research has been completed. It was developed using a methodology to manage uncertainty in repetitive building projects using Work-In-Process (WIP) buffers (Bf). The methodology has three hierarchical levels of application in production: strategic, tactical, and operational. At strategic level, a multiobjective analytic model (MAM) based on concepts of Pareto Front and simulation-optimization (SO) modeling was built. At the tactical level, SO modeling is directly used. At the operational level, a statistical model called Rational Commitment Model (RCM) was applied (in this level, simulation was not used). The methodology was applied in real and hypothetical cases demonstrating improvements in cost and productivity.

Other publications

González, V., Alarcón, L.F. and Gazmuri, P. (2006). Design of WIP Buffers in Repetitive Projects: A Case Study. 14th International Conference for Lean Construction, Santiago, Chile, July 25th – 27th.

González, V. and Alarcón, L.F. (2005). Design and Management of WIP Buffers in Repetitive Projects (White Paper).

González, V., Rischmoller, L. and Alarcón, L.F. (2004). Management of Buffers in Repetitive Projects: Using Production Management Theory and IT Tools. PhD Summer School, 12th International Conference for Lean Construction, Helsinore, Denmark, August 5th – 8 th.

González, V., Rischmoller, L. and Alarcón, L.F. (2004). Design of Buffers in Repetitive Projects: Using Production Management Theory and IT Tools. 4th International Postgraduate Research Conference, University of Salford, Manchester, U.K., April 1st –2nd.

González, V. y Alarcón, L.F. (2003). Buffer de Programación: Schedule Buffers: A Complementary Strategy to Reduce the Variability in the Processes of Construction, Revista Ingeniería de Construcción Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Volume 18 . Nº 2, pp 109 - 119, Mayo - Agosto 2003

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University of Calgary  
by Ahmed Al-Emran, Puneet Kapur, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe
Journal article to be published April 2010
Studying the Impact of Uncertainty in Operational Release Planning - An Integrated Method and its Initial Evaluation
Information and Software Technology, Volume 52 (2010), Issue 4, pages 446-461 
by Ahmed Al-Emran, Puneet Kapur, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe
Final paper to be presented at

July 8 to 9, 2010 - Paderborn, Germany
Application of Re-estimation in Re-planning of Software Product Releases
ICSPInternational Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2010
Ahmed Al-Emran, Anas Jadallah, Elham Paikari, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruh

Completion date July 2009 University of Calgary
Grant established May 19, 2008
Author

Ahmed Al-Emran

University University of Calgary
Degree PhD in Software Engineering
Department Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering
Tool used ExtendSim AT
Abstract

Context -- Uncertainty is an unavoidable issue in software engineering and an important area of investigation. This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on total duration (i.e., make-span) for implementing all features in operational release planning.

Objective -- The uncertainty factors under investigation are:

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The number of new features arriving during release construction

bullet The estimated effort needed to implement features
bullet The availability of developers
bullet The productivity of developers

Ahmed Al-EmranMethod -- An integrated method is presented combining Monte-Carlo simulation (to model uncertainty in the operational release planning (ORP) process) with process simulation (to model the ORP process steps and their dependencies as well as an associated optimization heuristic representing an organization-specific staffing policy for make-span minimization). The method allows for evaluating the impact of uncertainty on make-span. The impact of uncertainty factors both in isolation and in combination are studied in three different pessimism levels through comparison with a baseline plan. Initial evaluation of the method is done by an explorative case study at Chartwell Technology Inc. to demonstrate its applicability and its usefulness.

Results -- The impact of uncertainty on release make-span increases – both in terms of magnitude and variance – with an increase of pessimism level as well as with an increase of the number of uncertainty factors. Among the four uncertainty factors, we found that the strongest impact stems from the number of new features arriving during release construction. We have also demonstrated that for any combination of uncertainty factors their combined (i.e., simultaneous) impact is bigger than the addition of their individual impacts.

Conclusion -- The added value of the presented method is that managers are able to study the impact of uncertainty on existing (i.e., baseline) operational release plans pro-actively.

Keywords: Operational release planning; Uncertainty; Impact analysis; Discrete-event simulation; Heuristic optimization; Explorative case study

Original project description

The planning of releases is a key factor for the success or failure of incremental product development. The challenge here is deciding which features of a product are to be offered in which release (i.e., strategic planning) and how to carry out the feature development tasks within in each product release (i.e., operational planning). This planning process is extremely important since a bad release plan may cause late delivery of high-value features, unsatisfied customers, budget overrun, and decreased competitiveness. Existing research in release planning mainly takes place at strategic level. Thus, the research area is still in need of developing efficient and effective methods and tools that consider the operational feasibility of a proposed strategic release plan. The primary focus is allocating resources to feature development tasks (e.g., design, implementation, and test) with a “reasonable” release make-span. Three research objectives have been defined for the proposed research project in the area of operational release planning:

Objective 1 Resource-centric planning
  This encompasses the assignment of human and other resources to development tasks that need to be performed to implement features to be released in a release cycle. In addition to work volume consideration, skill levels of the human resources and dependency for different type of tasks need to be considered. The research goal here is not only to resolve scheduling problem for a set of jobs or tasks, but also to package features into consecutive releases.
Objective 2 Re-planning product releases
  Re-planning is the process of reacting on changed problem, project or organizational conditions such as alterations in expected personnel availability and productivity, estimated task work volume, and degree of task dependency. Research here aims at answering: when to re-plan, how to re-plan in terms of features and human resources, and how to change the originally planned release date.
Objective 3 Planning and re-planning under trade-off
  The main research question is to qualify the trade-off decision between “releasing early” and “releasing with quality”. The challenge here is to determine “sufficiently good” plan by evaluating alternative release plans based on planning quality factors such as release make-span, resource consumption, workload distribution, critical paths, and specially, plan robustness i.e., stability under uncertainty.
Update

July 20, 2009 - We have recently submitted a journal article that studies the impact of uncertainty in operational release plans. We present a simulation-based method that considers planning parameters as the primary source of uncertainty. The method measures the impact of the planning parameters’ variations on total schedule time (make-span). More precisely, with our method product managers can analyze proactively the impact of both individual and combined variation of planning parameters using various levels of pessimism. We are going post the link to the article as soon it is accepted and published to the submitted journal.

February 26, 2009 - A re-planning method called H2W has been proposed to answer the "how?", "when?", and "what?" questions to re-plan of an existing product release strategy. At each of the re-planning iterations, H2W either provides a new improved plan or states that an improvement does not exist. As an instantiation of this method, an ExtendSim prototype has been developed as shown. The related research work has been published in International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2009.

We have further restructured the original research project during my comprehensive examination. At first, we thought we will be working on all of the parts in parallel. However, we revised our strategy and decided to work on the simulation part exclusively first and finish it completely. This project will culminate in two conference papers and one journal article which we would be happy to share with you upon their acceptance.

Publications
Journal Articles
[J1] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: A Method for Re-Planning of Software Releases using Discrete-Event Simulation. Accepted in Software Process Improvement and Practice under special issue “ICSP 2007”.
[J2] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl: Performing Operational Release Planning, Re-planning and Risk Analysis using a System Dynamics Simulation Model. Accepted in Software Process Improvement and Practice under special issue “PROFES 2007”.
[J3] Dietmar Pfahl, Ahmed Al-Emran, Günther Ruhe: A System Dynamics Model for Analyzing the Stability of Software Release Plans. Published in Software Process Improvement and Practice 12 (2007) 5, 475-490.
[J4] Jingzhou Li, Günther Ruhe, Ahmed Al-Emran, Michael M. Richter: A Flexible Method for Software Effort Estimation by Analogy. Empirical Software Engineering 12 (2007) 1, 65-106.
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Conference Papers
new Anas Jadallah, Ahmed Al-Emran, Mahmoud Moussavi, Günther Ruhe: The How? When? and What? for the Process of Re-Planning for Product Releases. Accepted in International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2009.
[C1] Ahmed Al-Emran, Puneet Kapur, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: Simulating Worst Case Scenarios and Analyzing their Combined Effect in Operational Release Planning. Accepted in International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2008.
[C2] Ahmed Al-Emran, Keyvan Khosrovian, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: Simulation-Based Uncertainty Analysis for Planning Parameters in Operational Product Management. Published in Proceedings of the 10th Int. Conference on Integrated Design and Process Technology (IDPT) 2007. Antalya, Turkey, June 3-8, 2007, 191-201.
[C3] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl: Operational Planning, Re-Planning and Risk Analysis for Software Releases. Published in International Product Focused Software Development and Process Improvement (PROFES) Conference 2007 - Proceedings. Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2007, 315–329 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4589).
[C4] Ahmed Al-Emran, Dietmar Pfahl, Günther Ruhe: DynaReP: A Discrete Event Simulation Model for Re-Planning of Software Releases. Published in International Conference on Software Process (ICSP) 2007 - Proceedings. Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2007, 246-258 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4470).
[C5] Dietmar Pfahl, Ahmed Al-Emran, Günther Ruhe: Simulation-Based Stability Analysis for Software Release Plans. Published in International Software Process Workshop and International Workshop on Software Process Simulation and Modeling, SPW/ProSim 2006 - Proceedings. Berlin-Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, 2006, 262-273 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science 3966).
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Projects Under Development

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University of Ottawa  
Logistical studies of unmanned aerial vehicles
Name Keirin Joyce University of New South Wales
University University of New South Wales
Degree PhD
Department Aerospace Engineering
Grant established March 30, 2009
Scheduled completion date September 2010
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

n/a
Email keirin.joyce@defence.gov.au
Project description

Modelling of discrete operational events that impact the logistic support ramifications of unmanned aerial vehicle availability. Logistical studies of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are quite immature at this stage. This is due to the fact that most UAVs are brought into service under Advanced Technology Concept Demonstration (ATCD) programs and this method of introduction into service sees little effort put into precursory logistic planning - it is usually an after-thought. As such, while there has been a great deal of modeling of standard systems engineering logistic support, while Mr. Joyce has found none that he can identify in the literature pertaining to rapidly acquired aircraft, let alone unmanned aircraft systems.

Update

March 30, 2010 - The project has been slightly delayed due to a stolen laptop. The project will be completed by September of 2010 and a project update will be posted in May of 2010.


October 2009 - Continuing to develop model (my work has been quite slow this month due to work commitments). I envisage having the first iteration of the model ready over the Christmas break and will commence validation of the model at this time.


September 2009 - Compiling data for use within model.


August 2009 - Overseas gathering data from a variety of sources (NASA, RAND, US Air Force, US Army, US Navy and contractors attending the UV Europe (Wales) and AUVSI North America (Washington DC) conferences).


July 2009 - Model development commencing with conceptual analysis and then beginning to map the ExtendSim blocks into their required functions.


June 22, 2009 - Unfortunately, progress in my project (UAV logistic support modelling) has been hampered over the last three months, but is getting underway. The plan from here is to develop the model over the next couple of weeks and then begin the analysis phase. I will be able to report much more in my progress report for the next quarter.

Publications

n/a

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University of Ottawa  
E-Learning
Name Carlos Alberto Goncalves University of Ottawa
University University of Ottawa
Degree PostDoc in Education
and E-Learning
Department Centre for E-Learning
Grant established February 9, 2009
Scheduled completion date July 2011
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

http://www.uottawa.ca/services/tlss/e-learning
Email carlosgoncalves53@gmail.com
Project description

This research work is part of collaboration between the University of Brasilia (DF, Brazil) and the University of Ottawa (ON, Canada). It aims to improve the quality of teaching materials of the former university with the know-how of the latter.

The teaching of Physiology - an important segment of Biology - strongly depends on dynamic simulations and experimentations. This need is specially augmented in e-learning environments where the quality of the didactic material is a factor. Most teachers of Physiology are unable to produce high-quality simulations because they are generally non-acquainted with code-based programming. To deal with this problem, this twofold project intends to first develop some lessons using block-based programming tools and, second, in the case of lectures, scientific papers and presentations in scientific congresses - to encourage average teachers to use those tools more frequently.

A broad review of the currently available block-based programming tools pointed to ExtendSim as one of the most suitable simulation software to meet our purpose. We plan to build lessons in biology and health sciences for students of the University of Brasilia. During the first term of the project, we will produce lessons for a course entitled "Introduction to Biostatistics". The point here is to overcome the natural resistance of those students vis-a-vis biostatistics, by stressing the use of 2-D simulations. Concurrently, this phase of the work will allow us to get used to ExtendSim.

During the second term, we intend to develop more complex 3D simulations to support classic physiology lessons. The point here is to help teachers and students to better handle the high dynamic and complex features of physiological systems.

Update

January 4, 2010 - Due to health issues project completion date extended to July 2011.


July 2, 2009 - Name of the model: Average estimate
This first simulation aims to help students to better understand the differences between three popular statistics parameters used to estimate the average of a sample. The user is initially stimulated to change the distribution of a sample and to observe the plot of the new distribution. Then he may assess the new mean, median, and mode computed by the model. This simulation is being developed using some ExtendSim blocks such as sliders (to allow changes in the sample distribution), equations (to compute the parameters), and plot (to display the shape of the sample). I suppose that this simulation should be completed in about three weeks. Therefore, for the next quarter update, I would present the screen shots of the model. The development of a new simulation should be in progress as well.


March 31, 2009 - This is my first update. I've received my license approximately one month ago and since that I have been studying the manual, especially on those subjects concerning data managing and plotting tools. I am finishing the theoretical design of my first model, which will show up how parameters like mean and median change as the user changes the sample distribution.

Publications

VENEZIANO, W. H. ; ROCHA, A. F. ; GONCALVES, C. A. ; PENA, A. J. ; CARMO, J. C. do ; NASCIMENTO, F. A. O. ; RAINOLDI, A. . Confounding factors in water EMG recordings: an approach to a definitive standard. Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, v. 44, p. 348-351, 2006.

GONCALVES, C. A. ; CARDOSO, I. P. ; CARVALHO, T. C ; FREIRE, V. D. . Action Potential Propagation/Propagate‹o do Potential de A‹o /(CD-ROM, Simulation Software)/Publisher: Editorial Universidade de Brasilia, DF, Brazil, 2005.

NOGUEIRA, Edna L’via ; CORREIA, Andressa da Costa ; SILVA, R. A. ; GONCALVES, C. A. ; MOTA, Yomara Lima. Electromyographic assessment of the effect of age over paravertebral muscles/O efeito do envelhecimento nos mœsculos paravertebrais lombares investigado pela eletromiografia. In: XI Congresso Brasileiro de Biomec‰nica, 2005, Jo‹o Pessoa. Anais do XI Congresso Brasileiro de Biomec‰nica, 2005. v. I. p. 1-4.

CARDOSO, I. P. ; OLIVEIRA, C. C. S. ; FREIRE, V. D. ; GONCALVES, C. A. . A methodology for building hypermedia courses in Physiology/Uma metodologia para desenvolver aulas em formato hiperm’dia para o ensino de fisiologia. In: FeSBE2004-XIX Reuni‹o da Federa‹o de Sociedades de Biologia Experimental, 2004, çguas de Lind—ia, Brazil, 2004.

BRASIL-NETO, J. P. ; GONCALVES, C. A. ; GON‚ALVES, C. ; LIMA, R. R. F. ; PESSOA, V. F. . Development of a Computer-Based Method System for Studying Human Stereopsis:Contribution to the Study of Human Speed of Detection of Visual Depth. IEEE Computer Society, v. 1, p. 134-138, 1997.

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updated
University of Ottawa Updated July 14, 2010
Leisure and recreation industry
Name Michael King Virginia Tech
University Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Degree PhD
Department Business Information Technology
Grant established April 29, 2009
Scheduled completion date December 2010
Tool ExtendSim Suite

URL

http://www.ssqi.pamplin.vt.edu/about us/index.html
Email michael.king@vt.edu
Project description

Although there has been extensive research and simulation conducted within the production and supply chain domain, in respect to the United States economy, research and simulation related to the services sector lags behind. This is somewhat paradoxical, since the service sector represents over 75% of the United States labor force and approximately 75% of the United States Gross Domestic Product. This research project is unique in that it completely focuses on the services sector, and more specifically targets the leisure and recreation industry.

This research and simulation project proposes to model, in a two phased approach, the service activities associated with a major ski resort in Utah by utilizing granular RFID data from the resort’s lift access system. The resort has many years of experience with RFID lift access systems, and is a notable industry leader. The RFID data will support the development of daily skier visit forecasts, frequency distributions and transition probabilities associated with the resort’s extensive lift system.

Phase 1
The first phase of this research project is to create a discrete event simulation model, of a major ski resort, to measure and possibly optimize the effects of a set of decision variables on a specific group of metrics such as inline and offline queuing, lift capacity upgrades, and real time queue information. Currently there are five proposed decision variables each having several experimental levels. Servicescape constructs and SERVQUAL measures will be evaluated.

Objective: The main goal is to make managerial recommendations of reasonable and appropriate alternatives related to demand and capacity management of the ski resort. The simulation will support a business case for capacity management recommendations. The management will market any implemented enhancements as competitive advantages to their customer base.

Phase 2
The second phase of this research project is to construct an agent based simulation model that replicates the behavior of several skier personas with as many as 5,000 agents active during one simulated day and then aggregate the results over a full ski season. An agent based simulation makes it possible to analyze the relationship between individual micro behaviors with the aggregate patterns of many agents that eventually emerges over a day or ski season. An agent based model is applicable to skier behavior because “skiers” are intelligent, act upon their own local information, have memory, and are goal oriented.

Objective: Due to this ski resort’s unique ability to passively gather RFID data on each skier during each day, the resort has the ability to leverage the data into numerous highly targeted customer relationship campaigns. The return on investment on CRM type projects are in general difficult to quantify, so most ski resorts in North America are not fully utilizing their available CRM system. This agent based simulation will support a business case for additional marketing resources.

Update

July 14, 2010 - After an extensive period of data cleansing and scaling, I have been able to create interarrival schedules for each "process" in my proposed model. These "processes" of course, are the individual ski lifts at the resort. I built a database for the schedules and created a data feed into the model and ran the simulation for one day. I quickly noted that I had a major computer over utilization problem. After some model modifications to reduce CPU utilization, I still have a "hardware" problem. I have several options:

1 Reduce the complexity of the resort model as a whole
2 Reduce the realism of the interarrival schedules
3 Obtain a more power computing platform

Currently, I am requesting a much more powerful computer with 8 GB of RAM for temporary loan from our computing staff.

While I am waiting during summer, I am validating more RFID data and also preparing for a quick trip back to the resort in August to obtain 2009/2010 data.


January 10, 2010 - I have recently returned from Utah were I was able to obtain complete RFID gate access data for the year 2008 - 2009. This was a major research goal accomplishment. The resort is in a growth phase and it took six months to arrange a meeting. I briefly met and talked with the president and then worked with the marketing director for almost a day downloading detailed data reports on skier days and lift rides. I will now build out the full resort model and add the interarrival times for each lift for each day of the season. The next steps are model verification and full factorial experimental model design.


August 19, 2009 - Over the last few months, I have been able to develop custom cumulative discrete distributions for skier arrival for each ski lift at the research site. A model for each lift has been created that includes balking behavior, a random batching process, entity persona attributes, a specific ride time, and an unbatching process. The current model has been constructed in a hierarchical design to force detail to lower levels of the model.

The next step is to travel to Utah and gather skier transition data between each lift, so a transition probability distribution can be created for each lift pair. This task will be by far the most time consuming and probably the most interesting, and in the end the most valuable to creating a valid ski resort discrete event model.

Publications

Journal of King, Michael A. “A Realistic Data Warehouse Project: An Integration of Microsoft Access® and Microsoft Excel® Advanced Features and Skills” Journal of Information Technology Education, The Informing Science Institute, Vol. 8, 2009

King, Michael A. “The Implementation of DSpace at the Intercontinental Hotels Group: A Knowledge Management Project Success.” Journal of Cases on Information Technology, The Idea Group, 10(2).

Conference Papers:
King, Michael A., “A Strategic Assessment of The Higher Education Industry: Applying the Porter’s Five Forces for Industry Analysis.” Proceedings of the annual Southeast Conference of the Decision Sciences Institute, Charleston, SC, February 2009.

King, Michael A., Zobel, Christopher. “Applying the R4 Framework of Resilience: Information Technology Disaster Risk Management at Northrop Grumman,” Proceedings of the annual Southeast Conference of the Decision Sciences Institute, Orlando, FL, February 2008.

Arnette, Andrew N., King, Michael A., “The Business Value of Geographical Information Systems In Business School Curriculum.” Proceedings of the annual Southeast Conference of the Decision Sciences Institute, Orlando, FL, February 2008.

King, Michael A., et. al. “Information Technology Project Retrospectives: The Northrop Grumman Sperry Marine Story.” Proceedings of the annual Southeast Conference of the Decision Sciences Institute, Savannah, GA, February 2007.

King, Michael A. “The Evaluation and Implementation of DSpace at the Intercontinental Hotels Group: A Project Portfolio Management Approach.” INFORMS Annual Conference, Pittsburg, PA, November 2006.

King, Michael A. “Is the Value of a Ph.D. Always Negative? A Case Study Comparing Real Option and Stochastic Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Techniques.” Decision Science Institute Annual Conference, November 2005.

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University of Ottawa Updated May 27, 2010
Design and operation of integrated sites under uncertainty and disruption
Name Sebastian Terrazas Moreno University of New South Wales
University Carnegie Mellon University
Degree PhD
Department Chemical Engineering
Grant established April 4, 2009
Scheduled completion date May 2011
Tool ExtendSim AT

URL

n/a
Email sebastianterrazas@cmu.edu
Working title Design and operation of integrated sites under uncertainty and disruption
Project description

The project will be the design and operation of integrated sites under uncertainty and disruption.

We will consider both existing and newly integrated networks of production processes.

bullet For existing networks, we will examine modifications to either produce new products or increase current production capacity.
bullet For new networks, we will examine the overall design to meet reliability and capacity targets.

We will consider three major types of uncertainties:

1 Uncertainty in the demand of the products and intermediates.
2 Uncertainty in the availability of the processes.
3 Uncertainty in the supply of raw materials.

Conceptually this is a very difficult problem because the uncertainties in the demands are continuous, typically represented by probability distribution functions, while the uncertainties in the availability and supplies are discrete in nature and correspond to major disruptions. To address this problem we intend to first investigate a probability measure that incorporates both the discrete and continuous uncertainties based on some of our previous work (Straub and Grossmann, 1990). We also intend to investigate the use of semi-analytical models for inventories in supply chains under disruptions (Snyder and Shen, 2006). We then intend to incorporate these elements in a multiperiod MILP model for optimizing the design and operation in the face of the three types of uncertainties. While our initial goal is to address design problems using somewhat more simplified models (eg linear mass balances for processes, neglecting changeovers in multiproduct plants), we intend to develop in a second phase more detailed models for operations that can be validated with plant data and used for day-to-day decision making of operating sites.

Update

May 27, 2010 - During the last quarter, we continued working on combining specialized tools for mathematical optimization and discrete rate simulation in ExtendSim for the design of integrated manufacturing sites. In previous updates, we explained how simulations were run after using equation-oriented, mathematical programming software to obtain the optimal configuration of an integrated site. Recall that the model used in the equation-oriented software is an approximation of the model used in ExtendSim. We exploit state-of-the-art optimization technology for initially reducing the search space for the design of integrated sites. The idea of running the simulation after the optimization is to validate and fine-tune the design obtained in the optimization step using an approximate model.  

In the past months, we developed an idea to take advantage of ExtendSim in a new way. Namely, we used discrete event modeling tools embedded within the discrete rate model of an integrated site to construct samples of random events. The ExtendSim setup for representing the occurrence of random failures in the processing units of an integrated site was developed at the Dow Chemical Company and it’s summarized below. 

Unplanned failures are generated randomly from time-between-failures (TBF) and time-to-repair (TTR) distributions. Each failure mode is represented by a single item. For a unit with multiple trains (and same failure parameters), the item is duplicated so that there is one item per failure mode per train. A Queue Equation block is used to correctly model multiple failures. If a failure is generated when the unit is already down, that failure is held back until the unit is back in operation. If the unit is experiencing a rate cut, then the new failure is allowed to proceed, and the minimum rate of all active failures is used to determine the rate for that unit. 

The modeling technique just described was used to generate, for each simulation run, a list of exact times when failures occurred and the time they took to be repaired. This list was used to define failure scenarios in the equation-oriented optimization model. In this way we were able to obtain a closer approximation of the detailed model in ExtendSim and the equation-oriented mathematical programming model that we use for getting an initial design. 

We have begun to write a journal paper that will illustrate the way we use ExtendSim as part of our research on integrated site design.


February 2, 2010 - Last quarter I had to prepare for some conferences and wrote and corrected a research paper that we are about to submit to a Chemical Engineering Journal. Hence, I do not have any significant progress to report to you for the last quarter.


November 6, 2009 - In our last update we described how we used discrete rate models to validate the results obtained in the design optimization step. As a result of this procedure we obtained Pareto curves of minimum cost and maximum robustness against uncertainties. In that update we reported that the results predicted by the optimization model were in reasonable agreement with the simulation. However, we considered that the match between the mixed-integer optimization model and the discrete rate simulation could be improved. The results of our efforts during the last quarter show a better agreement between the mathematical programming model and the discrete rate simulation. For illustrating our results we used the following system: an integrated site made up of 9 plants that serve two external customers modeled as product sinks. We assume there is a given demand rate for the two products represented as the maximum total flow in the discrete event simulation. For confidentiality reasons we do not provide any more details on the process.

We developed a new mathematical programming model that corresponds to this integrated sites, with the objective of maximizing the probability of delivering the products at the demanded rate consistently. The optimization chooses the production units, their capacities, and the size of their storage tanks. One of the key ideas this last quarter was to make the objective function of this optimization similar to that of the network flow model embedded in the discrete rate simulation. The results of the optimal design predicted by the mixed-integer model are in very good agreement with the performance obtained by simulating the design using the discrete rate model.

Another key idea implemented during the last quarter was to add operational logic to the way that intermediate storage is managed. The optimal design of the integrated site installs extra plant capacity to keep the intermediate storage tanks from emptying. However operating at full plant capacity all the time disrupts the flow balance in the network. To avoid this effect, we added a valve between each plant and its storage tank. The valve allows the use of the full plant capacity only when the inventory falls below a set-point. The average inventory predicted by the mixed-integer optimization model is in very good agreement with the simulation results and the standard deviation is in the same order of magnitude.
Next quarter we will work on how to use ExtendSim to make improvements on the design obtained by mixed-integer optimization.


August 4, 2009 - The research project “Design and operation of integrated sites under uncertainty and disruption” represents a collaborative effort between Carnegie Mellon University and The Dow Chemical Company. The research problem can be stated as follows. We are given a set of finished products for which there is a demand that can be deterministic, or given by a specified probability distribution. The raw materials and the intermediate products involved in the integrated production site are known. The supply of raw material can also be deterministic, or given by a specified probability distribution. There are a predetermined number of steps involved in the transformation of raw materials to intermediate and finished products. Each of these steps is carried out by a different plant that can have multiple production units. Plants are connected through the flow of intermediate products between them. The network formed by the plants and their connections represents an integrated site. The plants in the integrated site are subject to random failures that result in corrective maintenance. As a result, plants experience some amount of down time during which production is decreased or stopped all together. Since plants are interconnected in the integrated site, a failure event will propagate downstream or upstream, forcing some other plants to decrease or stop their production. If these events are not considered while designing the integrated site, there is a risk that product demand will not be consistently met. The objective of this work is to develop a systematic method to determine the trade-off between capital investment and process robustness in the design of an integrated site subject to discrete and continuous uncertainties. The main design decisions considered are increases in process capacity, addition of parallel units, and addition of intermediate storage.

Discrete rate models are frequently used for simulating the design of integrated sites at Dow. At Carnegie Mellon we are proposing to leverage these modeling techniques as a part of an optimization & simulation approach for the design of such process networks. The optimization step is performed using rigorous mathematical programming techniques. However, in order to build an optimization model of practical size we are forced to make a set of approximations to the detailed behavior or the integrated site. Our goal is to use ExtendSim discrete rate modeling capabilities to correct and improve the initial design provided by the optimization formulation. For instance, information provided by the optimization technique, such as sensitivity around the optimal solution, could be used to design a set of simulation experiments in ExtendSim.

So far we have used ExtendSim discrete rate simulator to compare the actual performance of different designs obtained in the optimization step. As a result of this procedure we obtain Pareto curves of minimum cost and maximum robustness against uncertainties. We are working on developing a systematic procedure for using the full capabilities of ExtendSim, not only to validate, but also to correct and improve the optimal design obtained through the mathematical programming formulation

Publications

n/a

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University of Ottawa  
Buffering strategies in transportation construction projects
Name Eric Forcael University of New South Wales
University University of Florida
Degree PhD
Department Dept. of Civil & Coastal Engineering
Grant established April 4, 2009
Scheduled completion date August 2010
Tool ExtendSim Suite

URL

http://www.ce.ufl.edu
Email eforcael@ufl.edu
Working title Buffering Strategies in Transportation Construction Projects
Project description

Uncertainty is an inherent part of production systems. In construction processes, production variability emerges as one of the most typical representations of uncertainty. The negative impacts of variability over construction processes demands effective solutions to mitigate its effects on the accomplishment of projects. One of the tools to deal with variability in construction processes is the incorporation of buffers, which can help reducing the negative impacts of variability on projects. Despite the fact that buffering strategies have been developed for production environment in construction, there is no evidence of specific applications of these strategies to highway projects. Therefore, this study presents a new approach of buffering strategies applied to transportation construction projects.

Specifically, this research searches to study and analyze different types of buffers in order to figure out which are more relevant in road projects. Then, the buffers, which were chosen in the first part of this research, will be modeled with ExtendSim and, subsequently, validated through a case of study.

Full details on Mr. Forcael's proposed research
can be downloaded here
Download pdf

 

Publications

n/a

Updates March 31, 2010 -This report consists of a brief explanation about the conceptual model which is going to be used as basis for the proposed model. Also, the report includes the proposed model which is currently being tested.

The Conceptual Model - The model has been built based on the activities which are present in a transportation construction project. A schematic to represent the simulation model used for n linear sequential activities or processes was developed.

ExtendSim Grant at UFThe Proposed Model - Based on the previously-mentioned conceptual model, ExtendSim was used to create a model to represent the most significant transportation construction activities or processes. The proposed model has three activities as an example (the full model includes about eight activities).

Capacity buffer and material buffer are simply modeled as queues which store the number of workers, machines and material available. However, the calculation of WIP is not directly obtained; therefore, it is necessary to calculate it using an alternate algorithm.

Preliminary Conclusions - This current research is now focused on testing the model. The next step will be to validate the model using three case studies, which outputs will be including within the next progress report.

Download March 31, 2010 progress report Download pdf

 

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Rhodes University Environmental Science  
Economic contribution of river flow to the ecological production of certain ecological products
Name

James Woodward Saunders

Rhodes University
University Rhodes University
Degree PhD
Department Department of Environmental Science
Grant established February 22, 2010
Scheduled completion date January 2012  
Tool ExtendSim CP  

URL

n/a
Email

jim.saunder@pixie.co.za

Project title n/a
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

This research addresses the combined areas of ecological science and economics at the scale of a local ecological system and microeconomics, respectively. The method to be developed stresses the imputation of locally created economic value to elements of the locally defined ecological system that contribute to production of three ecological products. The ecological factors generally have no market value in their own right; however, they do contribute to the production of an ecological product that has economic value. Imputation enables the determination of the economic value of each ecological factor of production. The economic value of the ecological products will be determined from the cost of accessing the products with producer surplus.

bullet Questions that will be answered by the research
  The basic question is to determine the economic contribution of the Knysna River flow to the ecological production of certain ecological products. (In this study the three products in question are: fish, indigenous forest, and potable water).
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
 
bullet

Determine the ecological factors (biotic and abiotic) which contribute to the three environmental products and set out the appropriate equations for each. (DS -- indicates this aspect will be subject to dynamic simulation)

bullet Using inverse simultaneous equations, determine the percentage each factor contributes to the ecological production process for each product. (DS)
bullet Determine the monetary cost of accessing each product without producer's surplus. This cost will vary according to levels of production.
bullet Allocate to each ecological factor a portion of the cost of access based on the percentage each factor contributes to the ecological production of the product. (DS)
bullet Using the known flow of the Knysna River and the value of the contribution of the Knysna River, a demand curve for river flow can be created by integration using the two known values and one assumed value of river flow.
bullet Using actual costs and actual river flow one can mathematically create a demand curve for river flow. (DS)
bullet The demand curve and the ecological production system of the Knysna River Catchment can be tested by using real data to create a dynamic systems simulation of the Knysna River Catchment wherein all three products can be under production at the same time along with the related economic cost of accessing the products.(DS)
bullet The project will be considered successful if varying the model's flow of the Knysna River allows the model's demand curve to remain statistically compatible with the computed demand curve and the model's ecological production remains statistically compatible with reality.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

Current thinking is to use ExtendSim in the following manner.

bullet

Each ecological product will be described by a series of equations which in turn will reflect the ecological factors of production. These sets of equations will run dynamically to reflect the interdependent variables of the ecological system. The effect will be to demonstrate the change in production as the ecological factors vary.

bullet Using inverse simultaneous equations will allow the determination of a percentage contribution by each ecological factor to the production process. The percentage contribution of each factor may vary at different levels of production. The variation of contribution will be demonstrated via dynamic simulation. This is a critical part of the study.
bullet At each level of production a cost of accessing the product without producer surplus will be imputed to the factors of production. This imputation will be dynamically simulated at various level of production.
bullet Using cost of access without producer surplus a demand curve for each product will be created for the range of flow of the Knysna River. The demand curve for each product will be dynamically simulated for each product as the flow of the Knysna River varies.
bullet In the final step the model will simulate the production of the catchment and the mathematical cost of access with out producer surplus. I the modeling is accurate the result will statistically equate to production of the catchment and with data collected for actual cost of access.
bullet Project uniqueness
 

Literature research indicates this method of imputing value to non?market ecological factors of production has not been undertaken.

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  For the last few years I have been involved in applying environmental impact analysis from the stand point of balancing the environmental, economic and social implications of development. The South African law requires this balance to take place. From an academic view, I find the interdependent nature of the natural environment deeply engaging. The economic system is embedded within the natural system and understanding the connections between the two systems is today a critical challenge.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
 

Among other matters, I would like this research to provide insights into how aspects of the ecological system interact in support of itself and how this system interacts with the economy.

bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  If the model will accurately predict catchment production and economic cost to access that production, it will provide a foundation for continuing, updateable analysis of production and cost. The system will be transportable, user friendly and less expensive than systems available today for environmental management and impact analysis.
Updates n/a
Publications n/a
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Cal Poly San Luis Obispo Graphic Communication  
Optimization of American businesses to compete with foreign competition in the screenprinting industry
Name Kyle Naylor & Brandon Wolfe Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
University California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
Degree  
Department Graphic Communication
Grant established February 18, 2010
Scheduled completion date June 30, 2010
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

n/a
Email

Kyle Naylor -- knaylor@calpoly.edu
Brandon Wolfe -- bwolfe@calpoly.edu

Project title n/a
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

As the shift towards offshore business within the screenprinting industry increases, American businesses must find a way to remain competitive. Due to manufacturing costs and regulation it is impossible for Americans to compete with the low per unit cost of foreign suppliers. By decreasing the time to market, American businesses will be able to remain competitive and recover lost business. In order to achieve this, a flexible scheduling model must be developed in order to increase throughput of a production process. This model is based on known independent and dependent variables and variances that will be established in order to accommodate situations that would normally throw a traditional scheduling model off.

bullet Questions that will be answered by the research
  How does a production process increase throughput and reduce time to market in order to remain competitive with foreign business? We plan on using Theory of Constraints and monitor where constraints are shifting. We want to know what the net outcome is going to be. It's necessary that we remove as much friction as possible. Friction is anything that is going to potentially slow, detour or divert the maximum production capability. We need to see non-tangible factors. We want to be able to look at the information flow and the effects on the related systems which are the dependent and independent variables within the production system. We want to identify the scenarios that are most likely to occur and which ones are most destructive. We want to take the hundred or so variables in the process and simulate and quantify various scenarios quickly.
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
  Independent and dependent variables and variances will be established in order to create a visual representation of a flexible production process. Using ExtendSim, we can look for behavior patterns within the simulation models. We will be looking for event predictors in order to prevent causes that we couldn't avoid otherwise.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

We will utilize ExtendSim as a visual representation of the production process. This will allow us to analyze individual elements of the workflow and provide statistical information related to the process. ExtendSim will provide the necessary framework in order to input specific parameters of any production process. It will give us real-time analysis of how the production cycle is performing, where potential constraints lie and how to adjust the process with the real-time analysis.

bullet Project uniqueness
 

The aim of this project is to recover lost business to foreign companies. By increasing the ability to increase throughput and decrease the time to market, American businesses will be able to retain customers and aid in the recovery of the current economy. It will be applied to a scheduling model designed to be more flexible in its application. We want to create a distribution network that is infinitely configurable. This will hopefully help eliminate amount of internal cost.

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  The focus of this study is that of increasing the ability of American businesses to compete with foreign competition. Bringing business back to America will make for a stronger economy that is good for us all. Address the underlying fundamentals of how things are produced in our country. In the process of creating a more complex analysis and development of the next generation of manufacturing and distribution-to-market system that reduces large amounts of unrelated costs that is based on the time value of money. We hope to change the economics of how we are producing and selling products and maximizing ROI by analyzing time and risk vs. time and money.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
 

From this research we will be able to establish the most effective scheduling model and techniques in order to increase the throughput of a particular production process. We want to know how and when the constraints in the process shift and adjust the production process accordingly. There are a high level of independent and dependant variables in the practice. We want to establish predictive behavior around typical manufacturing scenarios that currently are almost impossible to model. We want to achieve a high degree of predictable outcome. The best practices today are nowhere near optimized.

bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  We aim to establish a scheduling methodology capable of facilitating increased throughput and a decrease in time to market that American businesses will be able to utilize in order to remain competitive with foreign business. Develop a scheduling model that is flexible. We hope to shatter the current paradigm and completely shift the paradigm. Develop much more efficient way of how we look at production workflow.
Updates n/a
Publications n/a
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Gjøvik University College Information Security  
Examine how security decisions affect a business
Name Magnus Felde Gjøvik University College
University Gjøvik University College
Degree Masters Thesis
Department Information Security
Grant established January 29, 2010
Scheduled completion date June 31, 2010
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

n/a
Email magnus.felde@hig.no
Project title n/a
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

The effects that security controls and incidents have on business processes are difficult to foresee. The reason for this difficulty might be a result of the complexity of the business and the fact that this complexity is in constant change. Whatever the reasons, the results are the same, namely that the security controls are not as effective as they could be, or that they, in worst case, directly prohibits the business in making money.

It is essential that not only the right processes are protected, but that they are protected in a appropriate way. The real solution therefore lies in understanding how different controls and threats affect the business.

We will in this project create a model of a business process and perform simulation runs in order to achieve a better understanding of how a selection of information security threats and countermeasures influence business key performance indicators. The work which is done in this master thesis will also provide answers to whether simulation can be used by information security managers as a tool to support them in their decision making process.

bullet Questions that will be answered by the research
 
bullet

To what extent is the construction and evaluation of a simulation model a useful tool in improving the understanding of the goals of the organization?

bullet To what extent does information security management decisions influence the organizational goals? And to what extent can this influence be simulated and analyzed?
bullet To what extent are KPIs suitable for measuring the affects of security decisions?
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
 
bullet First a simple scenario with a set of appropriate security threats and counter measures will be defined. This scenario will then be modeled and several simulation runs will be analyzed. This experience will give indications of the usability and applicability of the simulation model.
bullet Secondly, a case study will be conducted to look closer at how a particular (real-life) process can be modeled and based on this process, determine if the introduction of Smart Cards will affect the KPIs in a positive or negative way as opposed to standard user name and password scheme. The case study will be conducted in cooperation with Norway's largest Smart Card provider and with one of the larges hospitals in Norway.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

The business processes identified will be modeled with the use of ExtendSim OR. Simulation runs on these models will then be conducted and the results will be analyzed in order to answer the research questions.

bullet Project uniqueness
 

As we are looking to determine in what way security decisions affect the business, we are able to connect the security management to the rest of the management by focusing on a set of similar metrics (KPI).

Based on the related work process done earlier, no similar work has been done as most of the others focus on the optimization of IT in general and not security specific.

As many know, security will often be related to expenses and not profit, and simulation can help security leaders illustrate that security is beneficial for the company - however this requires that the right/most appropriate security measure is selected.

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  I have a genuine interest in information security but also see the importance of alignment/fusion of security with the business that it is supposed to serve and protect.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
 

Hopefully, with the aid of simulation, a clear connection between security and business can be established easily so that, given the right security measure, threats will be mitigated and the company still can make a profit.

Further, one can determine whether KPIs are an appropriate metric to use in the field of information security - or whether it lacks to provide the needed overall picture.

bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  Based on the fact that there is a demand for commonly accepted metrics and better understanding of how the business is affected by security problems and controls, our contribution will be to determine if simulation can become an appropriate tool for the job, whether or not KPIs can become commonly accepted metrics, and if in fact the combination of KPI, business process modeling and simulation will help the information security manager in understanding the business affect of security issues.
Updates

February 27, 2010 - During the last couple of months, much progress has been done in the project.

Based on a set of flow charts developed at a smaller Norwegian hospital, a model has been created which consists of the patient treatment process from beginning to end. This main process will be used throughout the project as the basis for simulating the effects of security measures on a set of KPIs identified, all of which are used within the health sector in Norway.

Although the flow charts have been developed from the patient treatment process found at a different hospital than the one which the case study will be conducted on, we will use this process as our basis for the rest of the project. The reason for this is that the process is smaller, which makes it manageable given our short time frame available, but still contains the necessary elements in order to fulfill our requirements.

The progress of the case study is also advancing and the processes used in both the password scheme and the smart card solution have been identified, flow charts have been created and based on these, a model has been developed.

However, there is still work to be done in connecting the authentication model and the main model, as well as making some adjustments in order for the model to work as planned. When this work has been completed, our next phase (simulation runs) can begin before we can start analyzing the results.  

Publications n/a
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Phoenix Information Systems & Management Updated July 10, 2010
Flexible work cells
Name Roger P. Case University of Phoenix
University University of Phoenix
Degree Masters Thesis
Department Information Systems & Management
Grant established October 2, 2006
Scheduled completion date December 2010
Tool ExtendSim Suite

URL

http://home.comcast.net/~manufacturingprocessresearch
Email ManufacturingProcessResearch@comcast.net
Project title Modeling Multivariates for Manufacturing Processes
Project description

This research is applicable to model the difficulties of a high volume
manufacturing environment with research findings focused on flexible work
cells. This consists of high volume high mix manufacturing with strict
process and quality requirements meeting international standards. This
requires modeling production for a mix of over 72 products from simple to
complex which impact cost and delivery rate. In detail the multivariates
include configuration of sub-components, products, testing, training, and
quality processes. Specifically this includes modeling the processes of:

Specifically this includes modeling the processes of:
bullet Demand forecasting of products and sub-assemblies.
bullet Product components and vendor logistics such as MRP.
bullet

Subassembly:

. Build rate
  Automated test rate
  Items Inventory
  Value
bullet Final Product:
. Build rate
  Automated test rate
  Items Inventory
  Value
  Labeling
  Shipping

bullet Product tracking (barcode/RFID + database) through multiple processes
including work in progress, automated testing and shipping.
bullet 3D Modeling of specialized equipment & training required for production, quality and testing.
Updates

July 10, 2010 - Continuing development of test model for capacity planning and statistical analysis. Continuing changes in model based on results of PCB parallel PCB testing - completion is still on target for 2010.


March 8, 2010 - Continuing to develop test equipment model for capacity planning and statistical analysis. New Changes to the model for implementation of parallel PCB test are in implementation. The dual test model is requiring much more effort than originally anticipated, however completion is targeted for 2010.


July 23, 2009 - Continuing to develop test equipment model for capacity planning and statistical analysis. Delays continue with introduction of the new product line.


February 27, 2009 - Continuing to create a model for evaluation of test equipment, which has been delayed with the introduction of new product line. This will be used to determine factory capacity planning & statistical analysis for dual product test system.


.February 20, 2008 - Project scope has changed slightly. Since I cannot use most of my previous employer's information/ process, I now plan to create a model for the multivariate's of products and process of my new employer. Plan to incorporate ExtendSim's 3D environment to evaluate specialized test equipment to determine factory capacity planning & statistical analysis. One specific case is our unique new test station concept where a single operator must use one PC with two LCD displays and manually operate two test adapters connected on this dual product test system.


November 15, 2007 - Continuing to model processes waiting on next Kaizen event to map external processes of quotation, purchasing, and engineering.


July 11, 2007 - Continuing to model manufacturing process based on Value Stream Mapping effort (Kaizen) to validate and improve competitive manufacturing methodologies with simulation.


March 29, 2007 - Research along with work related activities identified Kaizen for (continuous improvement) using operational excellence tools such as LEAN Value Stream Mapping to develop the framework for the ExtendSim simulation model. The goal is to model all processes for identification of improvement while eliminating waste and variability. A Kaizen event was completed to map all internal processes from receipt of raw materials through delivery for a specific product and customer (due to time constraints the external processes of quotation, purchasing, and engineering were excluded for a separate event). This LEAN exercise resulted in development of the current state and desired future state maps that provide the flow with batch and queue process for the internal simulation model that is currently under development.


December 29, 2006 - Research for previous work performed in this field is being performed using electronic databases to locate texts, journals, white papers and other publications. This will be used as a guide to compare, contrast or expand on the use of modeling to improve and create competitive manufacturing methodologies with simulation.

The research will help develop the framework for the simulation models. Working through the User's Guide tutorial to gain improved knowledge and skill of the ExtendSim tool. After completion will also review the creation of blocks as this may be necessary to create the final manufacturing solution libraries.

Publications
Mr. Case has experience with these major projects and publications:
bullet Small Diameter Bomb, Boeing, 2004-2006.
bullet Missile & Fire Control Program, Lockheed Martin, 2004-2006.
bullet Environmental monitoring systems, Sensor Microsystems Inc., 2003.
bullet Next generation flight data recorder for Navy as PI, D3 Phase II, "Digital Data Download", 2001.
bullet Helicopter monitor for Navy as PI, H-60 PHM Phase III, "Wireless Autonomous Prognostic Health Management System", 1998 - 2001.
bullet Sentient CN SBIR Phase II, "Sentient Collaborative Network", 1997 - 2001.
bullet Various aircraft studies of technology applications for Navy as PI, ONR STTR Phase II, "Miniature Distributed Systems Using Advanced Instrument Controllers", 1997 - 2000.
bullet F2 Associates DOE Program, "Laser Ablation Decontamination System,'" 1996 - 1998.
bullet Mobile robotic systems for Sandia National Laboratories multiple systems and "Robotic All Terrain Lunar Exploration Robot (RATLER)," 1994-1997.
bullet "Robotic all-terrain lunar exploration rover (RATLER)," W. Amai, P. R. Klarer, J. B. Pletta, J. W. Purvis, R. P. Case, SAND94-1706, Sandia National Labs Document, December 1994.
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Arab Academy Operations Management New July 20, 2010
Economical impact of emergency department crowding on hospital revenue
Name

Bob Batt

University of Pennsylvania - Wharton School
University University of Pennsylvania
Degree PhD in Operations Management
Department Operations and Information Management
Grant established July 20, 2010  
Scheduled completion date December 2010  
Tool ExtendSim AT  

URL

http://opimweb.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty.cfm?id=359
Email

batt@wharton.upenn.edu

Project title n/a
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

Crowded hospital emergency departments lead to long waits for treatment and reduced health outcomes. However, the literature is conflicted on whether ED crowding is bad for the hospital's bottom line. One school of thought suggests that ED patients tend to be unprofitable, and thus crowding reduces the number of these patients served and keeps the hospital resources well utilized. The other possibility is that ED crowding hurts revenue due to patients leaving without treatment (abandonment) and ambulance diversion (when hospitals declare they will not accept ambulances).

bullet Questions that will be answered by the research
  We seek to determine how emergency department crowding impacts hospital revenue, and how this would change with improvements in ED operations.
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
  We will use hospital data to estimate the expected value of each patient visit and the distributions of service times. We will then use a model to simulate the hospital and various scenarios.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

We will build a model of patient flow in and out of an emergency department. Arrival rates, admission rates, and service time distributions will all be estimated from data. Queue times and total length of stay will be endogenous (a result of the queuing process). We will also create rules for abandonment and patient diversion. Once we "tune" the model to the current state, we will do several "what-if" scenarios to see how the number of patients served changes as the various operational aspects of the process change. For example, how many more patients can be served if average service time decreases by an hour?

bullet Project uniqueness
 
bullet

The dataset that we are starting with is incredible. We have about a quarter-million patient visits from a large, urban hospital. This gives us great power in estimating various parameters and distributions.

bullet Nothing in the Emergency Medicine or Operations Management literature currently combines econometrics and simulation in this way.

 

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
 

My doctoral dissertation will be on various operational issues in emergency departments. This project will hopefully be both a stand-alone publication and a chapter of the dissertation.

bullet What will be learned from your research?
 

We expect to gain an understanding of how the complex emergency department queuing system responds to changes in service times and diversion/abandonment rules.

bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  I want to help bridge the gap between the theory of Operations Management and the practice of hospital management.
Updates n/a
Publications
bullet

Stephen G. Powell, Bob Batt (2008), Modeling for Insight: A Master Class for Business Analysts (Wiley)

bullet M. Eric Johnson, Bob Batt (2009), Breaking the Destructive Growth Cycle, Supply Chain Management Review, July/August 2009, Vol. 13, Num. 5, pp 26-33
bullet Bob Batt, M. Eric Johnson (2007), Strengthening the Distribution Channel at Steinway (Case Study)
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University of Ottawa  
Resource allocation management for the healthcare industry
Name Franklin Warren Virginia Tech
University Virginia Tech
Degree PhD
Department Business Information Technology
Grant established September 28, 2009
Scheduled completion date August 2011
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

http://www.ssqi.pamplin.vt.edu/expertise/index.html
Email ftwarren@vt.edu
Working title An Analysis of Scheduling Policies and Capacity Utilization for Rehabilitative Health Care Agencies
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

The health care industry in the United States is currently undergoing a tremendous state of turmoil. Health care service providers of all types including doctors, hospitals, urgent care facilities, therapists, long-term care facilities, and rehabilitation and vocational training facilities are being pressured to provide high levels of service with limited resources and capacity problems. Many facilities are experiencing high utilization, and shrinking income and profit margins. No sector of the industry is immune from the crisis that the industry is currently experiencing. The economic conditions; faced by patients, doctors and health care providers in the United States has stressed the health care services industry.

To better understand and model resource allocation problems in the healthcare industry, we will model the admissions and resource allocation processes at a comprehensive statewide rehabilitation center. The center aids individuals with disabilities and assists them in achieving greater independence and quality of life. The Center currently has a backlog of clients requesting admission and anticipates an overall increase in request for services -- from high school graduates with disabilities entering the workforce, to wounded soldiers returning to civilian life. The increased demand for services and diversity of client needs has created a backlog in the admissions process and an uneven use of resources. Previous assessments of capacity for the center need to be re-evaluated given the changing mix of clients and client needs.

We propose to use ExtendSim OR to:

bullet Develop a simulation model of the facilities processes, including client scheduling, and suggest and assess revisions to procedures and key performance measures.
bullet Review the Center’s patient classification and flow to improve capacity and utilization effectiveness. We anticipate testing various scheduling methods via the simulation model and assessing their significance with a four-factor ANOVA.
bullet Question/s that will be answered by your research.
 
bullet How can we improve the scheduling and utilization of resources by healthcare facilities?
bullet How do multiple objectives and policy constraints in a non-profit agency affect the allocation of resources?
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
  The initial phase of the project will involve data collection and acquisition, including employee interviews and site visits to the rehabilitation facility. The second phase will involve the design, development and testing of the facility simulation model.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
  Due to the multipurpose nature of ExtendSim OR, it has the capabilities to handle several problems that arise concerning the rehabilitation center's ability to schedule patients. The simulation package will be used to fully model the complex nature of patient scheduling and resource utilization.
bullet Project uniqueness
 

By assisting the rehabilitation center with its scheduling and capacity issues, we will be able to increase the number of clients that the center is capable of servicing, improving the quality of life and standard of living for many individuals living with disabilities in the Commonwealth of Virginia. We will also gain insight into the challenges and opportunities of healthcare resource allocation which will be useful for absorbing the increased demand for healthcare services anticipated with the expansion of healthcare coverage in the U.S.

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  I have been interested in and involved with the health care industry for the majority of my life. When you are able to give someone the opportunity to improve their quality of life and standard of living it truly gives you a since of pride in helping others achieve seemingly impossible goals. By developing models that will allow the rehabilitation center to improve resource utilization, capacity planning, and scheduling I will aid the center in increasing the number of clients that they are able to service.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
  I expect to learn new modeling techniques and methodologies that will assist in the development and delivery of innovative process scheduling and capacity utilization in the health care services sector.
bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  I would like to develop methodologies that will allow rehabilitation facilities, and other health care service providers to fully utilize resources in assisting and servicing clients.
Publications

“Determining Capacity in a Healthcare Organization with Changing Client Mix,” a presentation for the Decision Sciences Institute 2009 Annual Meeting.

Update March 10, 2010 -Since the inception of the research grant I have developed the preliminary model of the rehabilitation center, and converted the model from the initial platform to ExtendSim OR. This conversion will allow us to collect additional data from the model, and can graphically depict the initial data and results. POMS ConferenceTogether with members of the rehabilitation center staff, I am working to refine the model and conclude the initial phase of the research project by the end of April 2010. The initial phase includes developing the model of the facilities processes, including client scheduling, and revising the key performance measures. Research from this phase of the project will be presented at the POMS College of Healthcare Operations Management mini-conference in Vancouver 2010 Annual Meeting. 
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University of Pennsylvania Operations Research  
Cross-dock modeling and optimization
Name Zongze Chen University of Pennsylvania
University University of Pennsylvania
Degree Masters
Department Operations Research
Grant established February 18, 2010
Scheduled completion date September 30, 2010
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

n/a
Email zongze@seas.upenn.edu
Project title n/a
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

A cross-dock facility receives various products by trucks from sources such as manufacturing plants or container ports and after sorting them, delivers them directly to the customer. Cross-docking not only reduces material handling, but also reduces the need to store goods in a warehouse. Processing inside a cross-dock facility may face a number of issues. Previous research publications cover the optimum layout of a cross-dock, the best cross-dock shape, and ways to deal with cross-docking time constraints. Our research to date concentrates on the cost of moving goods inside the cross-dock. We have shown that these costs can be minimized by appropriate assignment of receiving doors to incoming trucks and outbound doors to outgoing trucks. We formulate this last problem as a Generalized Quadratic 3-dimensional Assignment Problem (GQ3AP).

Our future research will involve GQ3AP optimization as well as the development of other pertinent optimization models and will provide tools that the LTL industry can implement and adapt for specific cross-docking applications. Nation Retail System (NRS) has already and will continue to provide us with realistic cross dock situations and data that will allow us to better formulate our optimization objectives and then evaluate our results. NRS is a Retail Cross-Docking giant in the Northeastern United States. Their North Bergen facility receives goods from multiple vendors, sorts and loads them onto outbound trucks for a number of retail stores. We will first develop a simulation model of two cross-docks in operation of their New Jersey facility - Buildings A and B. In developing this model, we will in particular take into consideration the stochastic nature of arrival and departure times of the trucks.

bullet Questions that will be answered by the research
 
bullet

Investigate, under the realistic scenarios, which optimization problems and algorithms should be chosen to reduce cross-docking costs.

bullet Improve our optimization models to take into account the impact of truck arrival and departure times.
bullet Determine how one can improve cross-docking operations and what costs could be reduced through improved operational control.
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
  The initial phase of the project involves data collection and acquisition including OD freight volumes and scheduling times. In the next phase in cooperation with NRS, we will develop a discrete cross-dock simulation model and find the best optimization methods. Finally, we will try to incorporate what we have learned into a set of suggested optimization procedures.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

To fulfill the project objectives, we will develop a discrete event simulation model of the whole cross-dock process, including truck arrivals and departures, unloading, manual movement in building A and forklift movement in Building B. Input may include actual daily NRS data. Given the multipurpose nature of ExtendSim OR, and its ability to handle several problems, we expect to be able to test various concepts and results from cross-dock optimization models. We also think that the animation function provided in ExtendSim will be very helpful to us in visualizing the cross-dock operations under different scenarios.

bullet Project uniqueness
 

Based on our review of the literature concerning cross dock modeling and optimization, the idea of using a GQ3AP-type model considering both truck scheduling and the flow of goods in the cross-dock (forklift trips) turned out to be unique. No prior writing suggested such an approach and we propose to apply it in an actual industrial environment.

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  I am working on this project as my independent study course at the University of Pennsylvania. The subject covered in this course is the mathematical optimization of cross-docking operations. My contribution to the subject will be the evaluation of such mathematical models for a realistic application in the trucking industry. The use of ExtendSim in this project is essential to my successful completion of the course requirements. After completing my Master’s study, I plan to pursue a PhD in a related field. It is my intention to continue to use ExtendSim in my future studies as well as throughout my professional life.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
 

I expect to get a good understanding of cross-dock operations and to become expert at using ExtendSim. By adding time constraints to our optimization considerations, I would expect to be instrumental in improving our algorithms for cross-dock efficiency optimization.

bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  Provide the simulation of current mathematics optimization solutions and verify the best methods. Also, using the industry data with real constraints including timing, simulate the cross dock process and find out the best solution.  
Updates n/a
Publications
bullet Course Reports in OPIM 910 course (introduction to optimization theory):
  Personalized Diet Plans Optimization
  University of Pennsylvania Evacuation Plan Design
  Classroom Scheduling
bullet Course Reports in STAT 541 course (Statistics Methods):
  Boston Real Estate Analysis
bullet Course Reports in STAT 520 course (Applied Econometrics):
  Salary Weight Analysis by Gender
bullet Research Assistant on Project at Management Department of Wharton:
  Entrepreneurship and Strategy
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University of California at Santa Cruz Operations Research  
Fluctuating service capacity
Name Geoffrey Ryder UCSC
University University of California at Santa Cruz
Degree PhD
Department Operations Research
Grant established October 8, 2007
Scheduled completion date June 2009
Tool ExtendSim OR  

URL

http://www.citeulike.org/group/2906/library
Email gryder@soe.ucsc.edu
Paper title Research Report: Knowledge Management in Call Centers—How Routing Rules Influence Expertise and Service Quality
Project description

.For high-value workforces in service organizations such as call centers, scheduling rules rely increasingly on queueing system models to achieve optimal performance. Most of these models assume a homogeneous population of servers, or at least a static service capacity per service agent.

In our research we examine the challenge posed by fluctuating service capacity in service organizations. Our main line of inquiry involves building operations research models that can accommodate increasingly precise contemporary empirical studies of learning effects on the job. In "learning-by-doing," servers may increase their own service efficiency through experience; they may also decrease it through absence.

Today, large customer service providers such as call centers provide training and coaching to agents. But the benefits of "learning-by-doing" are not systematically optimized for in those providers' routing and staffing policies. We seek to quantify the benefits of learning-aware routing and learning-aware scheduling policies through discrete event simulation, queueing system models, and large-scale optimization programs. In particular, we seek policies that optimize worker development through "learning-by-doing" on the job, while at the same time maintaining a high level of service to customers.

Update

March 3, 2010 - Our paper was provisionally accepted pending editors' requested revisions by a journal, and we're working on the revisions now. In the meantime I got a postdoctoral research position at SAP Labs. So I'm working on that paper with my coauthors in our free time. Not sure how the copyright rules work out, but if I can't send you the final copy for publication, I'll send you a customized version you can post with newer figures and a more readable text/less jargon.


July 6, 2009 - I graduated in June, and we're working to get these papers accepted in research journals. I just taught an undergrad lecture class of 172 students from March until June. You may download the submitted below.


February 27, 2009 - Successfully defended his dissertation in December, 2008. His committee requested some edits to his thesis, and he is finishing those up now, and is on schedule to turn in the completed manuscript at the end of March. Prototype modeling in ExtendSim has been very helpful to their team.


March 6, 2008 -Download Geoff's latest research and ongoing Extend model he has been using to generate results. Once he brings the model up to ExtendSim OR 7, he will be writing more object-oriented code inside equation blocks.

. Download submitted paper completed June of 2009 (7.4 MB): Routing to Develop Expertise in Customer Contact Centers -- A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Engineering by Geoffrey S. Ryder
. Download in-progress report from March of 2008 (1.12 MB): Research Report: Knowledge Management in Call Centers—How Routing Rules Influence Expertise and Service Quality by Geoff Ryder
. Download Extend OR 6 model files (604 KB). You may view these models in ExtendSim or download the ExtendSim Demo.
Publications

Ryder, G. "Managing Changing Service Capacity Based on Agent Performance Data." INFORMS Annual Meeting, Service Industry III Session, Nov. 7, 2007.

Ryder, G. "How Learning and Forgetting Affect the Optimal Work Policy." INFORMS Annual Meeting, Management of Complex Service Systems Session, Nov. 4, 2007.

Ryder, G. and Ross, K. "Optimal Service Rules in the Presence of Learning and Forgetting." Sixteenth Annual Frontiers in Service Conference, San Francisco. October 4, 2007

"Optimal service policies under learning effects," International Journal of Services and Operations Management, Issue 6, Vol. 4, 2008. Accepted paper, to appear.

"Optimal service policies in the presence of learning and forgetting", by Kevin Ross and Geoff Ryder. Applied Probability Track, INFORMS Annual Conference, Pittsburg, PA, 2006.

"A probability collectives approach to weighted clustering algorithms for ad hoc networks," by Geoff Ryder and Kevin Ross. IASTED CCN Conference, Marina Del Rey, CA, October 2005.

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UNEFA  
Buffering strategies in transportation construction projects
Name Omar Chique UNEFA
University UNEFA (Armed Forces University, Venezuela)
Degree  
Department Public Policy & Transportation
Grant established July 21, 2009
Scheduled completion date December 2010
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

http://www.unefa.edu.ve/
Email chiqueomar@gmail.com
Working title National Oil Companies - Design of a policy framework for the development of local services and manufacturing industries in the oil and gas industry
Project description

I am a professor at UNEFA University in Venezuela, at the Department of Post Graduate studies in Public Policy advising several post graduate students in the development of a model to analyze public resources allocation.

bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
  National oil companies (NOCs) face multiple challenges associated with a rapidly changing business marketplace, as well as challenges related to the development of local content. Plans developed for the development of local content often compete with the managerial urgency to complete projects on time to achieve the desired financial performance. Power point based plans to develop local content fail frequently, among other reasons, because of the lack of integration of such plans with the NOCs supply chain performance, and the lack of understanding of nonlinearities, delays, and capacity building issues related to the NOCs operations, priorities, and plans. A system dynamics based simulation model that links local content development strategy to the NOCs structure may help the definition of strategies to enhance the development of local services and manufacturing industries, the integration of local content in the core business, and consequently, help increase the impact of local companies on regional development, which is the ultimate objective of the related public policy.
bullet Question/s that will be answered by your research.
  Whether prioritization of capacity building projects over time, in combination with a clear understanding of the role of delays in decision making within NOCs, drives the difference between desired and real local content development, significantly.
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
  Having already designed the general structure model for a NOC (Exploration, Production, Storage, Transportation, Terminals, Refining, Commerce, Supply, and Finance) and having identified some of the entry points of local content providers in the supply chain, I am ready to pursue the development of a simulation model to accomplish the described task.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
  Having tried other simulation programs extensively (Powersim, Vensim, I Think), and after having examined ExtendSim specifications, I find this simulation software appropriate to tackle the complexity associated with public policy formulation using simulation engines, which is the combination of the dynamic, discrete, and agents simulation paradigms, all present in ExtendSim; last, but not least, the user interface approach managed by ExtendSim increases the communication between non-technical policy makers and model designers by using animation.
bullet Project uniqueness
 

Regarding the representation of the structure of NOCs using system dynamics, I have recently completed an effort for a major NOC; while on the side of local content policy, I designed the strategic plan for a NOCs local content support in 2008. Both efforts have given me an overview of the pros and cons of different strategies associated with the subject. I acknowledge, though, the following contributions as unique in the field:

bullet Dynamic Planning and Control Methodology: Monseo Park and Feniosky Pena
bullet Executing major projects through contractors using: Nicholas McKeena
bullet Different case studies on local content development strategy in Europe.
bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  My interest is focused on this subject because I am a professor at the Public Policy Post Graduate School of the Armed Forces University in Venezuela, where I teach different subjects in Public Policy to Master's students.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
  The identification of policy levers to help improve the integration of local content companies in the core oil and gas business related to NOCs.
bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  The design of a formal policy framework for the development of local services and manufacturing industries related to National Oil Companies.
Full details on Mr. Chique's
proposed research can be downloaded here
Download Chique research

 

Update November 13, 2009 - Sending the quarterly update of research results before the end of this month as I am just wrapping up, checking the model, and writing the paper. I am sure that you will like it and recognize it as an innovative project using extendsim. Again thank you so much for your support.
Publications

n/a

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Arab Academy RFID Implementation New June 25, 2010
Assess the economical impact of adopting RFID technology in a manufacturing supply chain on its performance
Name

Aly Owida

 
University Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT)
Degree Masters in Industrial Engineering
Department College of Engineering and Technology
Department of Industrial and Management Engineering
Grant established June 25, 2010 Arab Academy
Scheduled completion date October 2010
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

n/a
Email

aly.owida@staff.aast.edu

Project title n/a
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

This research is focusing on a real life case study of furniture manufacturing. The manufacturing facility under study produces more than 1,000 products types, uses make to order production policy, and gives the customer a great flexibility in the customization of these products such as different models, sizes, finishing materials, and colors. This makes the flawless manual tracking of these products difficult to achieve. To complicate matters further, each of these products requires several manufacturing operations. It is expected that implementation of radio frequency identification (RFID) tag technology will lead to improvements such as reducing cycle time, cost, and errors at each workstation especially human errors.

The aim of this research is to assess the economical impact of adopting RFID technology in a manufacturing supply chain on its performance.

The objectives of this work are to measure the significance of the improvements that the RFID technology can achieve in the tracking and identification process by switching from manual monitoring to automated monitoring, to evaluate its benefits such as reducing cycle time, cost, and errors at each workstation with respect to the implementation cost, and to determine at which manufacturing stage the RFID technology should be applied.

bullet Questions that will be answered by the research
 
bullet

Will implementation of RFID in the selected manufacturing system improve its performance with respect to the cycle time, cost, and errors?

bullet Comparing the benefits obtained to the cost involved from implementing RFID technology; how many stages of the manufacturing system should adopt this technology?
bullet What would be the impact of improving the performance of the manufacturing facility on the supply chain specifically suppliers and warehouses (stages before and after manufacturing)?
bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
 
bullet

Data collection

bullet Model development
bullet Determining the cost of tags and readers
bullet Finding out the benefits from eliminating tracking errors and reducing cycle time
bullet Experimentation of several scenarios for how many manufacturing stages involved in the implementation of the RFID technology
bullet Developing an optimization model to determine the RFID system configuration that would result in the highest benefit-cost ratio
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

ExtendSim will be used in order to build the simulation model that will represent the actual system, to simulate the system after introducing the RFID technology, and to analyze the performance of the system.

ExtendSim is recommended for this research to make use of its capabilities and features such as:

bullet

Specific building blocks for manufacturing

bullet Sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of all factors included in the system
bullet Evolutionary optimization to determine the optimum number of stages involved in the implementation of the RFID technology
bullet Random number generator
bullet Distribution fitting
bullet Animation capabilities for enhanced presentation
bullet Project uniqueness
 

Based on the literature review conducted until now, they are trying to quantify the benefits achieved from implementing the RFID technology. However, most of the papers are purely theoretical and mainly focusing on assessing improvement in product tracking.

This project is applied to real life case study where all the benefits that are actually gained using RFID technology are to be assessed. In addition, optimization using simulation is used to recommend the optimum RFID system configuration.
(This has not been approached before based on the literature reviewed).

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
 

Personalized products or tailored-made solutions are taking over large shares of the marketplace from mass produced goods and standardized solutions. Therefore, product tracking and identification becomes a very important issue in the manufacturing sector. RFID has become a hot topic in the fields of manufacturing and logistics. It has emerged as part of a new form of inter-organizational system that aims to improve the efficiency of the processes in the supply chain. Furthermore, RFID has been identified as one of the ten greatest contributory technologies of the twenty-first century.

Companies are lined up to use RFID and to employ experts to improve the efficiency of their operations to gain competitive advantages over time.

bullet What will be learned from your research?
 

I expect to learn optimization using simulation in order to determine the best configuration and the number of stages to be included in the RFID technology solution proposed by this research.

In addition, to determine the significance of the RFID technology on the performance of a shop floor in a manufacturing system and to determine its significance on the supply chain as a whole.

bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  Determining the optimum RFID configuration by applying optimization using simulation approach.
Updates n/a
Publications A. M. Owida, K. S. El-Kilany, and A. E. El-Sayed. 2010. Analytical Hierarchy Process for Selection of RFID System: An Application in Retail Supply Chains. Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Flexible Automation & Intelligent Manufacturing (FAIM2010).
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University of Maryland  
Interaction between supply chain and financial performance in the presence of counterfeit electronic parts
Name

Youness Eaidgah Torghabehi

University of Maryland
University University of Maryland
Degree Masters
Department Supply Chain Management
Grant established August 5, 2009
Scheduled completion date October 2009
Tool ExtendSim AT

URL

http://www.calce.umd.edu/
Email yeaidgah@calce.umd.edu
Working title  
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

Supply chain is a set of processes to acquire raw material (tangible or intangible), convert it to finished product (tangible or intangible), and deliver it to the final customer. The main elements of the chain are forward material flow, reverse material flow, information flow, and a set of processes to accommodate, facilitate, and adjust the flow of material and information. Processes are realized by facilities and implemented by different parties along the chain.

Like supply chain, there is no consensus definition of supply chain management (SCM). For our purpose, SCM can be defined as a set of polices to govern, adjust, and coordinate forward and reverse flow of material as well as flow of information along the chain. These policies might be integrated and harmonized among different members of the chain or be local to each organization. Supply chain management traditionally is concerned about the flow of material and information. In this two dimensional way of thinking, the main goal is to deliver a higher customer value through improving the level of service while reducing cost.

A counterfeit electronic component is one whose characteristics are knowingly misrepresented by the supplier, one who is not the owner of intellectual property, to mislead the customer about the component brand, type, or life cycle characteristics. Counterfeiting is now a global problem that accounts for close to 9% of all worldwide trade. Surprisingly, counterfeiting is no longer restricted to clothes, watches, and stereos. The high technology industry has been hugely impacted by this activity. As an example, in the semiconductor market in 2005, the amount of counterfeit parts purchased by and from the USA was approximately between $70M and $100M. Due to great negative impacts of this phenomenon, nowadays, this area is receiving a huge amount of attention.

The backbone of companies is cash and the main principle is generating profit. There are a number of ways to improve companies’ financial performance. A wide spectrum of solutions such a technological innovation, manufacturing excellence, and financial techniques have been considered and implemented by managers. However, there is a limit to contribution of these solutions in achieving the financial goals. Supply chain management, due to its holistic approach, has a great capability to empower companies in this regard. Despite this fact, there is still a significant lack of knowledge about the impact of supply chain performance on financial performance. Based on my search, and as other scholars have also mentioned, there are fairly a small number of researchers in the area. On the other hand, although electronic parts counterfeiting is a great concern, I could not find any paper which investigated the impact of counterfeit electronic parts on supply chain and financial performance. The importance of the mentioned issues underlines the need for further researches in both areas.

During my research period, I am investigating the interaction between supply chain performance and financial performance in the presence of counterfeit electronic parts. My study is divided into two phases, qualitative study and quantitative study. Through the qualitative study, after a comprehensive literature review, I examine the potential interaction between supply chain non-cost performance measures and financial ratios. During the quantitative phase, I will use a combination of simulation, Design of Experiments (DOE), and regression analysis to assess the behavior of parameters.

The research started at the April 1st, 2009. The qualitative phase of the research has been accomplished. Based on the said phase, a paper has been authored. The qualitative study started July 1st, 2009 and it is planed to be completed at the end of September 2009. The outputs of the qualitative phase form the input of the quantitative phase.

bullet Questions that will be answered by your research.
 

The following issues compose main objectives of this project:

bullet Investigating the impact of sourcing from unauthorized distributors on the supply chain performance from the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) perspective.
bullet Investigating the impact of counterfeit electronic components, which may enter the supply chain due to sourcing from unauthorized distributors, on supply chain metrics and financial ratios.
bullet Eventually, I would like to see if the costs associated with sourcing from unauthorized channels outweigh the IT benefits or not.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
  To fulfill the project objectives, based on the SCOR model, I will develop a generic supply chain simulation model. The outputs of the simulation model will hopefully provide enough information to reveal the possible interactions between sourcing from unauthorized channel and counterfeits on one side and OEM supply chain and financial performance on the other side. I will use the Extend to make the simulation model and to run it. Flow of material along the chain will be modeled through stochastic discrete event simulation. Flow of cash along the chain will be modeled through discrete rate simulation. I hope ExtendSim Provides the right environment for both discrete event and discrete rate simulation.
bullet Project uniqueness
 

There is a limited number of research about counterfeits electronic components and unauthorized distributors. Even though there are a small number of qualitative studies, there is no scholarly quantitative study about the effects of electronic counterfeits and unauthorized distributors on the supply chain and financial performance of electronic original equipment manufacturers. This study is the first research in this field.

bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
  Nowadays, counterfeiting is a global problem that accounts for 5% to 7% of all worldwide trade, amounting to US $350 to 600 billion. Surprisingly, it is no longer limited to simple products such as bolts, clothing, dolls, stereos, and watches. Counterfeiters have made their way to sophisticated products
and high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, advanced electronic systems, pharmaceutical, and automotive industries. Even though there is a strong consensuses about negative impacts of counterfeits on the brand owners, consumers, and countries that are involved; nevertheless, very little is known about the phenomenon itself, both in practice and theory. Our
knowledge about the unauthorized distributors, tactics of counterfeit producers, consumer behaviors, mitigation methods, and the impact of the counterfeits on the supply chain and financial performance of companies is limited. There are a significantly small number of scholarly works in this area, particularly in the field of electronic components. I hope my project yields a deeper insight about the role of unauthorized distributors, their effects, and the impact of electronic counterfeits on the OEM.
Publications

Anna Megarian, “Supply Chain Network Economics: Dynamics of Prices, Flows, and Profits”, Edward El gar Publishing, 2006

G. Tom as M, David J. Ketch en, Jr. Lowder, Garry L. Adams, Jeannette A. Mena, “Supply Chain Orientation and Balanced Scorecard Performance”, Journal of Managerial Issues, Number 4, 2008

Manish Govil, Jean-Marie Proth, “Supply Chain Design and Management: Strategic and Tactical Perspectives”, Academic Press, 2001

John D. Sterman, “Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World”, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2000

David Simchi-Levi, Philip Kaminsky, Edith Simchi-Levi “Designing and Managing the Supply Chain: Concepts, Strategies, and Case Studies”, McGraw-Hill, 2008

A.E. Ellinger, “Improving marketing/logistics cross functional collaboration in the supply chain”, Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 29, 2000

M.J. Meixell, V.B. Gargeya, "Global supply chain design: a literature review and critique", Transportation Research, Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, V.B. 2005

Henry Livingston, “Avoiding Counterfeit Electronic Components”, IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, Volume 30, Issue 1, 2007

S. Bastia, “Next Generation Technologies to Combat Counterfeiting of Electronic Components”, IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, Volume 25, Issue 1, 2002

J. Stradley, D. Karraker, “The Electronic Part Supply Chain and Risks of Counterfeit Parts in Defense Applications”, IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, Volume 29, Issue 3, 2006

A. Gunasekaran, B. Kobu, “Performance Measures and Metrics in Logistics and Supply Chain Management: A Review of Recent Literature (1995-2004) for Research and Applications”, International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 45, No. 12, 2007

C. Shepherd, H. Günter, “Measuring Supply Chain Performance: Current Research and Future Directions”, International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, Vol. 55, No. 3/4, 2006

A. Gunasekarana, C. Patelb, Ronald E. McGaugheyc, “A Framework For Supply Chain Performance Measurement”, International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 87, Issue 3, 2004

..more
Victoria University of Wellington  
Use of scenario modeling and discrete event simulation in the optimization of warranty pricing and contract negotiation
Name

Dinu Corbu

Victoria University of Wellington
University Victoria University of Wellington
Degree PhD
Department Operations Research and Statistics
Grant established January 22, 2010
Scheduled completion date June 2012
Tool ExtendSim OR

URL

n/a
Email dinu_corbu@yahoo.co.nz
Working title n/a
Project description
bullet Brief description of the problem/issues
 

Warranty analysis is a multidisciplinary field, which currently is developed mainly in the areas of analyzing warranty one/two-dimensional policies and of building failure models, cost models, claims models, warranty reserve models, and warranty pricing models.

However, pricing models are not as advanced as the other warranty models. In addition, the current pricing models generally consider only the manufacturer and the dealer (intermediary) as active players and do not give an important role to other parts involved, such as the customer and the outsourcing service provider (when present in the contract).

This research aims to extend the current warranty pricing models by increasing the role of the customer and warranty service provider (when this part is different to the manufacturer and/or dealer).

bullet Questions that will be answered by the research
 

The first point is to establish the fair price of the warranty policy with the condition of fair profit allocation between manufacturer, dealer, and service provider and also maximization of the utility function of the customer.

The second is to consider alternative policies for groups of customers, differentiated by the affordability of the warranty price.

The third point is to build pricing models that equally offer to all parties involved the possibility to negotiate the terms of warranty contract, tailored to suit their particular preferences and financial capability

bullet How research strategy will be designed to answer these questions.
 

The strategy involved is to consider a range of representative business situations and to build the mathematical/economic side of warranty models considering alternative scenarios, when the parties:

bullet Fully cooperate in achieving the fair price while agreeing on the level of uncertainty concerning the product reliability (agree on the same failure model).
bullet Have different information and different perception on the product reliability, but fully cooperate to achieve the fair price by pooling their distributions of the failure model.
bullet Each part follows its own interest, they do not have the same information, and they do not agree to use the same distribution of failures. All warranty contract parts engages in a non-cooperative game.
bullet How ExtendSim will be utilized in this project.
 

ExtendSim will be used for building discrete event simulation models that:

bullet Replicate the business situations
bullet Simulate the behavior of the parts involved
bullet Simulate the failure of the products and the submission of warranty claims
bullet Measure, in case of each item sold, the profit/loss and the utility of the parts involved
bullet Centralise and report the statistical results
bullet Vary the values of the parameters under different scenarios
bullet Signal and record the equilibrium points and the domains of instability
bullet Project uniqueness
 

The project aims to bring the current warranty pricing models a step forward by using scenarios modelling and discrete event simulation to optimize warranty prices. In addition, it aims to provide the parties involved in the warranty contract with an effective simulation tool that allows forecasting the results of warranty policy and, therefore, to be used in negotiation.

bullet Why the interest in the indicated subject?
  The main interest in the project is to achieve a PhD in Operations Research and Statistics. Other interests are enriching the warranty modelling literature and knowledge and developing personal simulation-modelling skills.
bullet What will be learned from your research?
 

The project will be a learning opportunity in many areas, such as (and not limited to):

bullet If it is possible and realistic to enhance the current warranty pricing models by adding new players/ warranty policies.
bullet If it is possible to obtain the model equilibrium and the fair price under particular scenarios/business situations.
bullet If simulation software, particularly ExtendSim, can be used in building tools that can be effective in negotiation of warranty contracts.
bullet What specific contribution would you like to give to the existing current state of knowledge in your subject area?
 
bullet To contribute to building warranty models that consider all parts involved in a warranty policy as active players whose decision matters. In addition to offer alternative based on players preferences and financial power.
bullet To build simulation tools that can be an instrument in negotiating the prices of warranty contracts.

 

Publications

As representative for supporting this piece of research, there can be mentioned the article “Product warranty: modelling with 2D-renewal process” by Dinu Corbu, Stefanka Chukova, and Jason O’Sullivan, published in International Journal of Reliability and Safety 2008 - Vol. 2, No.3 pp. 209 - 220.

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